Casey DeSantis edges out Byron Donalds in new Florida governor poll

Florida first lady Casey DeSantis held a narrow lead over Representative Byron Donalds in a new University of North Florida (UNF) poll of the state’s 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary.

Newsweek reached out to Donalds’ campaign and the DeSantis office for comment via email

Why It Matters

Florida’s 2026 gubernatorial race is closely watched, as Governor Ron DeSantis cannot run again due to term limits. Donalds, who has announced his campaign, is viewed as an early frontrunner, having received support from President Donald Trump. But first lady DeSantis’ potential candidacy remains a key question ahead of the midterm elections.

What To Know

Thirty-two percent of respondents said they would vote for DeSantis if she chooses to run, according to the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab survey of 797 Republican voters from July 14 to July 22.

Donalds closely followed with support from 29 percent of Republicans.

Former Representative Matt Gaetz had support from 8 percent of respondents, while 2 percent backed Miami Mayor Francis Suarez. Commissioner of Agriculture Wilton Simpson had support from 1 percent of respondents.

An additional 18 percent said they were not sure who they would vote for in the primary.

The margin of error for the poll was +/- 3.9 percentage points.

While DeSantis led in the overall sample, Donalds led among voters who participated in the 2024 GOP primary by 37 percent to 22 percent, according to the poll.

A St. Pete Polls survey, conducted July 8 to July 10, 2025, showed Donalds with a lead (35 percent to 27 percent). The poll sampled 831 likely Republican primary voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

A May 2025 poll by the James Madison Institute, a conservative Tallahassee think tank, showed DeSantis with a one-point lead over Donald (29 percent to 28 percent). However, when respondents were informed of Trump’s endorsement of Representative Donalds, his support jumped to 44 percent, while DeSantis’ fell to 25 percent. That poll surveyed 516 registered voters from May 5 to May 7, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.77 percentage points.

On the Democratic side, former Representative David Jolly, who served in Congress as a Republican but has switched parties, has made a formal campaign announcement. Former Senate Democratic leader Jason Pizzo is running as an independent.

What People Are Saying

Dr. Michael Binder, UNF PORL faculty director and professor of political science, wrote in the polling memo: “Casey DeSantis was an early favorite when we asked about this in fall of 2023 with 22%, ahead of Donalds with 9%, and 40% undecided, but after Trump’s endorsement of Donalds and as we get closer to August 2026, DeSantis’s lead has all but disappeared, now inside the margin of error for this poll.”

Donalds on CBN News, according to Florida Politics: “I have the support of President Donald Trump. I have the support of [Florida’s GOP] Senator Rick Scott. I have the support of most of the Republican congressional delegation. And we’re picking up steam every single day. I’ve been crisscrossing the state nonstop for the last six weeks, except when I’m here doing my job here in Washington.”

Casey DeSantis on whether she’ll run for governor, in remarks reported by the Florida Phoenix: “We’ll see.”

What Happens Next

The Republican primary for Florida governor is scheduled for August 18, 2026. As of July 2025, Byron Donalds is the highest-profile candidate to have officially entered the field. The race between Donalds and DeSantis remains fluid, with candidate announcements, campaign developments, and evolving voter priorities shaping the contest in the months ahead.

The Cook Political Report currently classifies the race as being Safe Republican.