Driven by low morale, Gaza City exodus threatens Hamas’s strategy, analyst says

An expert on Hamas’s economy says Gaza’s civilian outflow is now a strategic problem for the terror group. As morale sinks and costs spike, more residents are leaving, diminishing Hamas’s leverage.

A growing wave of departures from Gaza City, driven by collapsing morale and fear of having nothing to return to, is eroding a core pillar of Hamas’s war strategy, Hamas economy expert Eyal Ofer told Maariv on Monday.

He said the shift is unfolding across Gaza as families weigh repeated evacuations, widespread destruction, and price shocks that make staying untenable.

Over the past two years, many Gaza City residents have traced the same route three times, Ofer said, moving from Gaza to Rafah, back to Gaza, and now again south. Unlike the early wartime flight and the relief felt by some who returned during January’s hostage deal, he said, part of the population has reached a breaking point.

As evidence, Ofer cited sharp spikes in moving costs reported on Gaza Telegram and X channels. Truck fees from the Rimal neighborhood to the south have jumped to 3,000–4,000 shekels, up from about 1,500 shekels only days earlier, he said.

Residents pointed to fuel prices to explain the surge, Ofer noted. With a liter of fuel near 100 shekels and a round trip requiring hours and about 10 liters, fuel alone can cost roughly 1,000 shekels. In the south, apartments are scarce and expensive, with some listings at 8,000 shekels a month and plots for tents reaching 1,000 shekels.

“The social solidarity that still existed in Gaza is disappearing,” he said, describing a market where “almost everyone who can profit from the situation does so.” After seeing the destruction in northern areas such as Shejaiya and Rafah, some families doubt they will have homes to return to and therefore move with as many of their belongings as possible.

Hamas’s calculus under pressure

Ofer said he warned a year ago that Hamas’s center of gravity rests on “home and people.” While the IDF focuses on targeted strikes and tunnel shafts, Hamas is deeply concerned about civilians leaving without plans to return, he argued, since residents serve the organization as human shields or as imagery for its information campaign.

According to Ofer, Hamas-run authorities have pushed a “do not evacuate” message through official statements, forged flyers, threats, and videos of demonstrations. As strikes reached coastal tent areas, thousands of pedestrians joined the southbound traffic jams of trucks, signaling that the campaign to keep people in place is losing traction.

The open question and strategic risk

In a previous round, about 350,000 people stayed in northern Gaza. Today, Ofer estimated, roughly twice that number remain, crowded into a smaller area in western Gaza City, and the key question is how many will choose to stay at any cost. “War is first a contest of will,” he said, adding that a continued civilian outflow would further undercut Hamas’s leverage.

“On social media, many Gazans already plead: ‘Just open the Rafah crossing. From there, we will manage on our own.’”