How Trump Brought a Divided Canada Together—Against Him
Though Carney is unlikely to feign progressive ideals, as Trudeau did to get elected a decade ago, Canadian progressives may see in him something better than simply the lesser evil. A Carney majority government would likely present a formidable challenge to Trump while simultaneously bringing about a sea change in Canadian politics. If current polling is accurate, not only will Carney vanquish Poilievre and his increasingly far-right Conservative Party, but he may also prove fatal to Canada’s traditional progressive party, the New Democratic Party, or NDP, including the potential loss of official party status. This may ultimately result in Canada’s conservatives moving back toward the center and encourage the NDP to move further left (Canadian progressives have blamed the party’s centrist slide for its poor performance in the last several federal elections).
This notwithstanding, a Carney victory would be an unambiguous message from the Canadian public that Trump must be opposed at all costs and therefore that the vulnerabilities of continental interconnectedness should be corrected as quickly as possible. If this means transitioning away from economic integration with the U.S., who better than Carney to manage such a transition? This may appeal to some Canadian progressives who recognize free trade with the U.S. as a foundational problem that has eroded Canadian political and economic sovereignty, as much as its social safety net and culture, for more than a generation.
Though Carney is an exceptionally well-connected establishment figure with a decidedly neoliberal track record, Trump’s existential threat to Canada may necessitate a broad national effort to economic independence and self-sufficiency that’s incompatible with neoliberalism. Canadians seem eager to fight back as much as imagine a new, better, and perhaps more autonomous and independent future. They may end up with a shift in the status quo that doesn’t involve cozying up to the madman in the White House.
