Why Russia’s Putin and Syria’s Sharaa agreed to meet after a decade of war

Russia clearly wanted to pivot to work with Sharaa. It likely extended feelers long ago, recognizing HTS as a potential partner, even after a decade of fighting in Syria.

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa journeyed to Russia on Wednesday for important meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin. For many people who have followed the Syrian civil war and its aftermath, the meeting seemed extraordinary and unexpected.

Russia was a key ally of the Assad regime. Moscow views Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group that Sharaa led in Syria, as terrorists. Nevertheless, it also appears that Moscow has been hedging its bets for years.

Russia intervened in Syria in 2015. It supported the Assad regime against the Syrian rebels. The rebels were mostly Sunni Arabs, and they had backing from the West, as well as Turkey, Jordan, and other countries.

Moscow wanted to shore up the Assad regime and protect its bases in Syria.

Syria has been an ally of Russia for decades, an alliance that dates from the Soviet era. Therefore, Syria is an asset for Moscow.

Russia decided over time to work with Iran and Turkey to manage the conflict in Syria.

Tehran was backing Assad. In fact, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, who was killed by the US in 2020, is credited with convincing Russia to intervene more heavily in Syria.

Turkey was ostensibly at odds with Russia. Over time, however, Putin was able to work with Ankara and even sell it Russia’s S-400 air-defense missile system.

As such, Turkey agreed to basically weaken the Syrian rebels and co-opt them so they wouldn’t go on the offensive.
Ankara used the rebels it co-opted to fight the Kurds, launching attacks on Afrin, a mainly Kurdish city in northern Syria, in 2018 and attacks on the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led coalition of US-backed militias and rebels, in eastern Syria in 2019.

Russia, Turkey, and Iran all agreed they wanted the US out of Syria. They excluded the US from the Astana Process that they worked on for Syria, a series of meetings that began in Astana, Kazakhstan, in 2016.

By the time 2024 rolled around, it seemed the Assad regime was cemented in power. But Israel’s war against Hezbollah last year from September until November weakened the Iranian-backed group.

Russia was willing to let Assad fall

This removed a key pillar of support for Assad, because he had relied on Hezbollah fighters for help. HTS, the Sharaa-led group in Idlib, northwestern Syria, then launched an offensive in late November last year. By December 8, the Assad regime had fallen, and Assad was on his way to exile in Moscow.

It now appears that Moscow was willing to let Assad fall, and it wanted to pivot quickly to work with the new regime in Damascus.

It wants to keep its bases in northwest Syria. In return, it can supply Syria with oil and also help Damascus with ties to countries that are close to Moscow.

SYRIA IS working with both sides. It wants ties with the West as well.

Sharaa says he is ready to develop strategic ties with Russia.

The meeting in Moscow “addressed bilateral relations between Syria and Russia and ways to strengthen strategic cooperation across various sectors,” Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA), Syria’s official news agency, reported. “At the start of the meeting, President Al-Sharaa emphasized the deep historical ties between the two countries, noting that Syria is entering a new phase in which it seeks to rebuild its political and strategic relations with regional and global powers, mainly, the Russian Federation.”

Sharaa said: “Syria and Russia share a long-standing historical relation, along with bilateral ties and mutual interests in several fields, including Syria’s energy sector, which heavily relies on Russian expertise… We respect all past agreements and are working to redefine the nature of these relations in a way that ensures Syria’s independence and national sovereignty.”

Putin said Russia–Syria relations date back more than 80 years. In fact, there are 4,000 Syrians currently studying in Russia.

Putin praised Syria’s recent elections.

“The elections were a major achievement, helping unify society despite the sensitive conditions Syria is facing,” he said.

Putin also mentioned the Russian-Syrian Joint Governmental Committee, which “was launched in 1993 and recently resumed its activities under the leadership of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak,” SANA reported.

“President Al-Sharaa was accompanied on his visit to Moscow by Foreign and Expatriates Minister Asaad Hassan Al-Shibani, Defense Minister Major General Murhaf Abu Qasra, General Intelligence Chief Hussein Al-Salama, and

Presidency Secretary-General Maher Al-Sharaa,” the report said. “This marks President Ahmad Al-Sharaa’s first visit to Russia. It follows a visit by Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan Al-Shibani to Moscow last July, during which he met with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov. In September, President Al-Sharaa also received a high-level Russian delegation in Damascus led by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak to discuss ways to enhance cooperation and develop bilateral relations across various fields in service of both nations’ interests.”

Sharaa and Putin go from enemies to allies

Russia clearly wanted to pivot to work with Sharaa. It likely put out feelers long ago and understood that HTS could be a possible partner.

Many people can’t understand this because they see HTS roots in al-Qaeda, and they think Russia’s stated aim in Syria was to fight “terrorists.” They can’t understand also how Syrian rebels, who were bombed for a decade by Russia, would be willing to go to Moscow.

Nevertheless, history teaches that allies can become enemies, and enemies can become allies. History is full of such examples, including: US president Richard Nixon going to China; the constantly changing alliances in Europe that saw countries switching sides quickly over the 18th and 19th centuries; Russian cavalry riding all the way to the outskirts of Paris to push Napoleon from his throne; 100 years later, Russia and France going to war as allies against Germany.

Times change. What Moscow understands is that things can change very quickly.