Clear frontrunner to win Best Actor Oscar emerges as odds soar
Timothée Chalamet’s chances of winning the Oscar for Best Actor have soared following his recent Golden Globe victory.
Chalamet won the award for Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy for his portrayal of Marty Mauser in Marty Supreme on January 11.
Chalamet’s Golden Globe win has had an immediate effect on awards-season predictions.
On Polymarket, Chalamet is currently the strong favorite to win Best Actor, with the market suggesting about a 79 percent chance of Oscar victory.
His odds were roughly 61 percent on January 11, rising to 81 percent immediately after the Golden Globe announcement.
“I’m in a category with many greats. This category is stacked. I look up to all of you. Thank you. Always be grateful for what you have. It’s allowed me to leave this ceremony in the past empty handed, my head held high, grateful just to be here. I’d be lying if I didn’t say those moments didn’t make this moment that much sweeter. For my parents, for my partner. I love you. Thank you so much,” Chalamet, 30, said during his speech.
The sports comedy-drama, directed by Josh Safdie, follows the turbulent journey of Mauser as he chases an international championship.
His role is loosely inspired by real-life table tennis legend Marty Reisman. Marty Supreme has received widespread critical acclaim, picking up Golden Globe nominations for Best Screenplay and Best Musical or Comedy Motion Picture.
His co-star Odessa A’zion also earned a nomination for the SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role.
According to Covers.com, Chalamet has effectively taken control of the Best Actor market, overtaking longtime frontrunner Leonardo DiCaprio.
The site noted that following the Golden Globe win, Chalamet’s “price jumped from 62¢ to 78¢,” signaling widespread confidence among market participants.
Industry analysts and awards trackers agree. GoldDerby.com currently lists Chalamet’s chances at 94 percent, making him the most likely winner in the category. Chalamet, who has previously been nominated for Call Me By Your Name (2017) and A Complete Unknown (2024), is now widely regarded as a leading contender to finally take home his first Oscar.
Variety’s ranking of Best Actor contenders places Chalamet third, behind Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) and Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), with Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) and Jesse Plemons (Bugonia) rounding out the top five.
The 98th Academy Awards are scheduled for March 15, 2026. With his Golden Globe momentum, strong betting market support, and critical acclaim, Chalamet is positioned as a frontrunner to claim Hollywood’s most prestigious acting prize.
